Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

TL;DR: Tops Take a While to Form

BTC ATM IV

  • 1W: 47.03%

  • 1M: 44.49%

  • 3M: 45.76%

  • 6M: 46.75%

  • Index Price: $105,830

  • DVOL: 46.44

ETH ATM IV

  • 1W: 59.98%

  • 1M: 62.11%

  • 3M: 62.81%

  • 6M: 63.57%

  • Index Price: $3,592

  • DVOL: 71.28

Before you scroll down, sign up on kyan.blue to stay up-to-date with Kyan’s development and the upcoming beta event. There will be Krystals to be collected soon.

Marty's Thoughts / Recap

BTC Daily Price

ETH Daily Price

Let's start with the daily chart on BTC & ETH. Zooming out, BTC looks much better than ETH… Sure, both are down today, but at least BTC is higher than its 2021 high, which ETH is still under… Uptober turned to a meme, Where does that leave us? Freefall? Bottomless?

Well, we aren't going to change the world being down -5% everyday.

Let’s put things into perspective on a YTD basis.

  • BTC 13.16%

  • ETH 7.78%

  • QQQ 15.92%

  • SPX 22.69%

  • EWZ 41.03%

Basis was hovering 8-11% all year, a great, LOW RISK trade as we highlighted here plenty of times. Brasil on top, tech following, with our little coins trailing behind. I mean even T-bills were paying 5% most of the year… Makes you wonder…

Ok OK Marty… that’s enough, you're scaring the readers… ok, in all honestly, usually when I write these bearish newsletters it is a local bottom. So there is that. But, as a wise fella once told me… Tops Take a While to Form.

The media team shared some exciting news with me… we saw a huge inflow of new signups on the newsletter last week, so a big shoutout to all our new readers and thank you for choosing to be part of this community. For those just joining us, we publish a biweekly newsletter that takes a data-driven approach to the crypto space, diving into the numbers, options insights, and views that tell the real story rather than just reporting the headlines.

Whether it's breaking down market movements, analyzing emerging patterns, or spotting what others might be missing, our goal is to cut through the noise and give you analysis you can actually use, and we're thrilled to have you here.

Kyan Testnet Trading Competition

On a more exciting note, KYAN is launching very soon. Kyan is Premia's rebrand and will be launching with a Testnet Competition that's worth paying attention to. With portfolio margin and perps integrated into the platform, it's shaping up to be a sophisticated trading environment where you can explore the interface, test strategies, and compete for rewards.

Now, I'm not supposed to reveal exactly what those rewards entail, but I think our dedicated readers deserve a little alpha. The testnet competition will run for four weeks, split into two Stages, with rewards ranging from Krystals to cash prizes. What are Krystals, you might ask? All I can say is this… more Krystals equals better outcomes for you. Being an early supporter of the exchange launch will also work in your favor when it comes to future opportunities.

Kyan is being built to cater to all types of traders, but the initial launch will focus on getting users comfortable with the new layout and functionality. If you're familiar with Deribit, the experience will feel quite similar in terms of navigation and design.

Kyan's offering includes everything a derivatives trader looks for in a comprehensive derivatives suite, options, perps, RFQ, and a multi-leg strategy builder. Whether you're running complex spreads or simply testing directional plays, the platform is designed to handle it all.

Keep an eye out for the official launch announcement, because this is one testnet you'll want to participate in from day one. You have nothing to lose on testnet, it will all be free, with real prizes.

Crypto 1-Week Return

Majors 1-Week Return

Not looking great fellas, as tech pushes for new highs, our coins keep suffering.

Sentiment on CT is slowly going to 0, DATS down major, and over 1B in liquidations hit the tape today. Crypto is an emerging market, trade it like one. The key of trading emerging markets is timing.

I am still in the camp that BTC goes up forever against fiat, but as for all the other slop, its hard to back and openly support things that are mostly going to zero. In terms of the future of crypto, we are still early, but that means as we go through the market cycle, projects come and go, things go up, and things go to zero, leaving you to pick the right bags.

Greeks.live Block Marketplace Spotlight

We are grateful to get a peak into the largest trades provided by Greeks.live. The fellas have given us even more insights toda in whether the RFQ was Buy or Sell side, and which exchange it was settled on. This gives our readers and traders a better look into the books of these larger players. I will continue to share these biweekly here in the newsletter and weekly in the Marty Telegram Group.

Coming into uPToBeR end, we saw a lot of put sells, which is quite surprising to see, as we nuke, these players need to start to cover, which in turn pushes the market lower. On the Buy side, seems most players got nuked, except the 28Nov 95k Put buyer! Of course we can't see their whole book, and these "single legs” we see could very well be part of a bigger strategy.

Wrap-up

As tech pushes to new highs, we are cucked in our chairs watching our little coins underperform basically everything. The market enters a little period of fright now as Jpowell hinted that a December rate cut is not 100%… Last week the market priced in a December cut at 94.4%, but now it’s sitting at a 67.3% chance… Mind you the next FOMC is 30+ days away, US Government shutdown should end soon, US/China talks gone well… Things SHOULD be on the up and up.

If you're bullish long term, buying blood in the markets usually has gone well. Things can change quite fast in this market — it gets over the scare of no cut, and all of a sudden the rocket is back and we are so back.

Keep your eyes peeled for new Kyan Updates and an official launch date for the Testnet Competition. I’m told within 1-2 weeks. Let's hope for a smooth launch, and happy trading to everyone.

It is on Arbitrum testnet, it is FREE to compete, and there will be real prizes. If you made it this far into the article, here is some more alpha that only the readers get on Monday. The alpha is free on Monday. For early competitors/winners, there will be a VIP tier on mainnet launch which will lower your overall fees. Lower Fees = More Profit.

Note: None of this is financial advise, as I write this bearish article, it is probably the bottom, thanks for playing.

Thank you to all the readers who make this newsletter possible, we are sitting at about 7000+ email sign ups, and thousands of readers every 2 weeks. As for the now WEEKLY Options Talk Show if you or someone you know wants to be a guest feel free to DM me, we are booking out January 2026 already!

If you are interested in learning the basics of derivatives, please check out current edition of the academy here academy.premia.blue. There is a revamp coming out soon, and we will continue to add and expand these readings with more content, including video format!

Note: Email signups get the newsletter 20-ish minutes before.

Recap

  • Basis Was A Good Play This Year

  • ETH Is Almost Negative On The Year

  • Kyan Testnet Competition Dropping Soon

Trade on Premia: https://app.premia.blue/

Join The Marty Community Telegram: https://t.me/optionswithmarty

Mind you there is never a paid group, all information is free and we will never ask you for money. The Telegram is always free and provides a community for people to chat and learn.

What Does Kyan Mean for Crypto Options?

​Kyan will be a significant upgrade for anyone trading decentralized derivatives.

If you have any questions, hop into our Discord or shoot us a message on X. We would love to know your thoughts!

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