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BTC ATM IV

ETH ATM IV

When I bullpost it is the top and when I bearpost it is the bottom. Follow for more tips.

In the past few weeks global uncertainty has hit what I would call an all time high. We have had Maduro, Greenland, ICE, Tariff Drama, Iran, Europoors, and a South American trade deal threatening to do less biz with the U.S. Burgers are an odd breed because if you do not bullieve what they think then you are anti-American. I am not here to be political or point fingers but the world’s uncertainty surrounds one country and one country only… cough cough.

From what X tells me the majority of my audience are burgers and I do not mean to offend anyone but c’mon fellas. It is time to reel things back under control or it is starting to look like a top for the US of A as a whole. I mean even Canada is doing more trade deals with China. Your 51st state is going across a country to trade rather than just trade with their next door neighbor. Sure, Canada is only 40mm people, but this should be quite telling of where the world is headed.

With global uncertainty rising you would think that our precious little coins would catch a bid and they did for a second but we again got humbled last night. Nat gas is up 18% intraday, other commodities flying to the heavens while our coins are nothing but red today. Gold is sitting at all time highs because apparently the only thing people trust right now is a yellow rock… Meanwhile the US is busy playing Risk with Greenland and dragging Maduro to New York, the smart money is fleeing to safety and leaving us holding the bag on "digital gold" that behaves more like digital lead.

It is a classic case of the world being on fire and crypto forgetting its job as a hedge. We are seeing hundreds of millions in long liquidations because the market realized that maybe just maybe trade wars and 25% tariffs on our closest allies are actually bad for "up only" season.

Some hope still for these late Jan, early Feb calls, but puts are the leader in the past 24hr. Of course we cannot see the total books of these players, but over 1,000x orders is quite significant and something to pay attention to. The BTC-23JAN26-90000-P is the absolute whale in the room, showing a massive cluster of volume that suggests players are bracing for a sub-90k flush before the month ends. While those green bars at $105k and $108k prove some people still have the "up only" spirit for early February, they are being dwarfed by the immediate demand for downside protection. When the biggest bar on your screen is a big red put for an expiry just a few days away, it is a clear sign that the market is more worried about catching a falling knife than catching a moon mission.

Quite worrying when the top gainers are memes and dino coins. I honestly do not even know 95% of these coins and it is concerning to see DASH be one of the top gainers in the week. Never good when the dino coins pump. When you see a privacy coin from a decade ago outperforming the entire frontier of "the future of finance" it usually means the market has run out of ideas and is digging through the trash for liquidity.

It is a mixed basket from the beginning of the year and I have no clear signal or crystal ball for what is happening next. I am happy the majors are green but we need to be careful this year trying to chase memes, and should instead stick to liquid majors. When the world is this messy and your neighbors are looking for new friends across the ocean the best move is usually the simplest one. Do not let a DASH pump or a random dog coin lure you into thinking the game has changed. Protect your capital, keep your eyes on the liquid big caps, and let the dust settle on these global trade wars before you try to be a hero.

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