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BTC ATM IV

ETH ATM IV

I always like to come back to our handy-dandy line chart to put things into perspective. Sometimes candle charts can twist and change our perception of the market. You know how it goes: oh, the head and shoulders; the triple bottom here; the big McDonald’s golden-arch TA to cloud your judgment. When we look at the line graph, I’m sorry, but it’s properly screwed. This is the one-year chart, and we’ve wiped out all gains. We have had every possible catalyst to propel us to new heights, but there’s been no follow-through.

The frustrating part is how predictable it’s become: weekend pumps on light volume, Monday morning euphoria that evaporates by Tuesday. Even now, institutional money sits on the sidelines while retail chases green candles that disappear faster than they appeared. We’ve seen this pattern enough times that it’s hard to get excited about much anymore. The market keeps serving up the same meal, just reheated with different headlines.

What’s wild is the disconnect between the narrative and the price action. Everyone’s talking about the revolution, mainstream adoption, and unstoppable momentum, but the chart tells a completely different story. It’s telling us that talk is cheap and actual, sustained demand is nowhere to be found. The conviction just isn’t there, plain and simple.

Let’s get into it.

For the crypto space as a whole, we’ve had every positive headline and every institution throwing millions, if not billions, at crypto. But what are we left with? 50% drawdowns, massive daily liquidations, and nothing but disappointment. I mean, we even got scammed by a sitting president. How are we supposed to recover from that? Nothing has actually changed. The US promised a reserve that never came through, US tax guidelines never changed, and we’re still sitting here arguing over what’s a commodity and what’s a security.

The promises were endless, but the delivery was nonexistent. We were told institutional adoption would change everything, that the floodgates were opening, that this time was different. Instead, we got press releases and token launches that dumped on everyone who believed the hype. The same old playbook with fancier packaging and bigger names attached to it.

And here’s the part that really stings: the regulatory clarity everyone said was just around the corner? Still nowhere in sight. The infrastructure bills that were supposed to legitimize everything? Watered down or abandoned. The macro environment that was meant to favor hard assets? Turns out stocks and bonds did just fine without us. We’re still stuck in the same uncertainty we’ve always been in, just with fewer excuses left to cling to.

Not sure who picked up around 8000x 75k end-of-February calls, pray for them. For every buyer, there is a seller. Best of luck to all players.

Basis went down, down, down. What once was a way to generate solid income has now gone closer to zero. The chart tells the whole story. We’ve gone from double-digit annualized returns back in the summer to barely scraping 3% now. That’s not even beating inflation at this point. The carry trade that had everyone feeling like geniuses for months has completely evaporated. Back in the day, you could lock in 8-10% risk-free just by holding spot and shorting futures. Now you’re lucky to get enough to cover your coffee budget.

This isn’t some temporary dip either. Look at the trend since August. It’s been a steady grind lower with no real recovery in sight. The market is telling us there’s no conviction, no willingness to pay up for future delivery, and no appetite for leverage. When basis collapses like this, it means the smart money isn’t interested in being long anymore. They’re either flat, or they’ve moved on entirely.

What kills me is how quickly it all unwound. We went from basis traders printing money in their sleep to questioning whether the position is even worth the operational headache. The infrastructure is still there, the exchanges still work fine, but the opportunity has vanished. Just another reminder that nothing in this market stays easy for long.

WLFI down 25%, too much collusion and fraud getting the light shined on it. The sea of red is brutal. Everything got absolutely hammered and there's nowhere to hide. BTC down 13%, ETH down nearly 16%, SOL bleeding 17%, BNB off 20%. Even the smaller caps that people thought might be insulated got wrecked just as hard. The only tiny specs of green are basically rounding errors at this point.

What stands out is how uniform the sell-off has been. This isn't rotation, this isn't some coins doing well while others suffer. This is wholesale liquidation across the board. When everything moves together like this, it means people are just getting out entirely, not picking and choosing. They're closing positions, meeting margin calls, or just capitulating after watching their portfolios bleed for weeks.

So where does that leave us? Sitting in the wreckage of another failed rally, watching the same tired patterns play out for the hundredth time. The catalysts came and went without moving the needle. The institutions showed up, but the price didn't care. The promises of regulatory clarity turned into more of the same bureaucratic nonsense we've dealt with for years.

The basis trade is dead and the entire market cap took a beating that wiped out months of gains in a matter of weeks. Every chart looks broken, every narrative feels hollow, and the only thing consistent is the disappointment.

Maybe this is just another hype cycle. The US goes all in, and we'll look back in six months laughing about how bearish everyone (including me) got at the bottom. Or maybe this time the market is finally telling us what we've been too stubborn to accept. Either way, the price doesn't lie. Right now it's saying nobody wants to be long, nobody trusts the bounce, and nobody believes the hype anymore.

Until something actually changes, not just another headline or another promise, we're stuck here. Grinding lower, bleeding out, and waiting for a catalyst that might never come. That's where we are.

See you in two weeks pimps, hopefully with something better to talk about.

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