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BTC ATM IV

ETH ATM IV

Today will be a longer form. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Price has been the same since the last newsletter, but the world and global situation are changing rapidly. Over the weekend the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran, and Iran has retaliated with missiles and drones, some of which are hitting neighboring countries. This is quite the escalation, and while CT is making jokes about people who moved to the UAE to save on taxes and are now stuck in a warzone, this is real life, real people, and innocent people are dying. I can't fix the war, but we can trade around it. I hope everyone stays safe and things resolve soon.

Crypto, and BTC especially, is in the perfect position to climb higher and become the digital gold it has always claimed to be. If we keep drifting lower and BTC fails to push to new heights, then the experiment has failed and we go back to calling it digital lead. The geopolitical chaos actually sets up an interesting narrative for BTC as a safe haven asset, store of value, uncorrelated to any single government's decisions. We've been waiting for the moment that story gets tested for real. This might be it.

Iran has been "days" or "weeks" away from a nuclear bomb for decades now. Don't fall for that trap and become a sheep. There is some hope that this escalation ends soon. Emirates has announced they will begin processing flights as of tonight, calling them "limited flights," with all other flights still suspended. I'm assuming they got a green light to move some people out. Neighboring countries have been flooded with people fleeing, High Stakes Capital included. I'm not calling it a 100% ceasefire tonight, and as long as Iran keeps getting attacked, they will continue to retaliate, leading to a forever cycle of pain, hardship, war, and death.

As with all Middle East tensions, and the recent hit on the biggest refinery in Saudi Arabia, crude is catching a mega bid, gold is kinda flat, and crypto is full on sending. This is definitely a trader's market, but don't get caught off guard by the constant whipping around of prices moving irrationally on an ever-changing situation. As I’m writing this, Iran is announcing a new wave of attacks with new types of missiles. Stay safe, everyone.

Crypto has been flat for over a month after the early February price nuke. BTC sitting around 69k is still down 20% YTD and well off ATH. If you're here for the long run, I would probably set your spot bids and come back when the spotlight returns. We're being outshined by AI for the foreseeable future, but I still believe in BTC and the future it could hold. I'm just not sure we're going to 250k tomorrow like everyone keeps saying.

Not sure what the buyer of that 125k March 27 Call knows that we don't, but this is a huge trade. Besides that, nothing too out of the ordinary. Some put buys throughout March, but nothing quite telling.

The market is ripping today, and if it continues, those ETH calls will cash big. Trump is going live right now as I’m writing this, and the market can swing a few percent just based on his comments alone. One thing to keep an eye on is a surprise announcement around approvals or changes in US crypto law. Whether it's the Clarity Act or something related to taxes, any kind of regulatory green light can easily keep the pump going. The market loves certainty, so keep that in mind.

AI is in every dinner conversation I've had for the past few months. Retail is out here snapping up Mac Minis and Studios, while simultaneously spinning up agents with zero security guidelines and getting absolutely wrecked. We are in the infancy of AI. Big tech is building out the infrastructure to grow into it, but who's to say we ever fill those shoes? What if AI never reaches human intelligence and the whole thing comes crumbling down until we find a real use case for it?

On the enterprise level, it makes a lot of sense. AI can do a lot of good, but it can also be used for a lot of bad. We're right in the middle of watching Anthropic go head to head with the US government over free use of Claude, and just this morning it sounds like the US government may drop Anthropic altogether. Not sure I want Sam Altman AI controlling the world either though.

AI is not perfect, it makes mistakes on simple things. I'm not sure I want the US government to have free reign of what is basically a prototype. The future of war is clearly becoming more autonomous, but we could also be at the beginning of the end. We've all seen The Terminator, right?

I always like to leave readers with something to think about, and since most of you are traders, here's some actual alpha buried in this long-form ramble. As always, none of this is financial advice.

Equity perps are becoming more and more popular, though liquidity is still an issue. Once US equity markets trade 24 hours, which is coming (I just don't know when), that liquidity will shift into crypto platforms and traders won't get liquidated on random low-liquidity spikes at 3am on a Sunday. Something worth keeping an eye on as that infrastructure builds out.

I'm also looking at emerging markets. As the US tries to play world police, investors are looking elsewhere for better returns in countries that are more politically and financially stable. Stable as in tariffs aren't announced then immediately slapped down by the Supreme Court. Stable as in the president isn't moving markets with random social media posts. Stable as in the rest of the world isn't openly laughing at them. The US markets are still the largest, they'll continue to be there, and the US is still the AI hub, but just start looking at other markets with plenty of opportunity.

Take Brazil, for example. EWZ was up 44% last year and is already up 22% this year as of Feb 26th, and sitting up 18% today, and it's only March 2nd. I'm not saying go throw all your cash at emerging markets. I'm saying go take a look, do some research, and see if this kind of exposure makes sense for your portfolio. You might be surprised what you find.

Markets are moving, geopolitics are heating up, and crypto is finally getting its moment to prove what it's made of. BTC has a real narrative to run with right now: digital gold, safe haven, uncorrelated to any single government's chaos. The question is, will it deliver.

Keep an eye on the options flow, keep an eye on Trump's comments, and keep an eye on any regulatory surprises out of Washington. Any one of those can move the needle in a big way. Trade the volatility, don't get married to a direction. Those ETH calls are live and ITM, the 125k March 27 call buyer clearly knows something, and the macro backdrop is about as volatile as it gets.

That's all for this one. Stay safe out there, keep your heads on a swivel, and as always, stay pimpin.

Notes: Email sign ups get the newsletter 20ish minutes before. Kyan will be launching its Private Beta very shortly on Arbitrum. Options, perps, portfolio margin, combo trades, and liquidity will all be available day 1! I will provide some special newsletter readers with referral codes as soon as they become available.

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