Tuesday Alpha - Trading Comp Edition

Please note that Premia does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as such. Anyone considering trading or holding derivatives or crypto assets should be aware that the risk of loss can be very high, and it is upon each individual to seek advice from an appropriate professional advisor.

BTC ATM IV

ETH ATM IV

Let's rip the bandaid off… 1 Month returns look absolutely horrid, and YTD returns aren't looking too hot either. Sure, there is some green. ZEC is having its moment, and UNI deployed a new fee structure to make it pop, but UNI is still down 45% YTD.

10/10 liquidated the majority of players in the space, but no one was prepared for what came next. Usually major liquidation events cause or mark a reversal in trend, but this isn't the case here. We continued to bleed. We are significantly lower than 10/10 across the board, but the selling has been much more controlled with no major exchange outages since… Besides today with Cloudflare down and half the world losing access to basic things. Cloudflare was a mistake. Cloudflare only down 4% today.

It's worth noting that most alts have much less liquidity than majors, and on 10/10 their wicks were much lower. We are currently sitting below candle body closures, dare I say… Fill the wicks? The reality is most alts are going to zero. Prepare and plan accordingly fellas.

We have had a few wild weeks in the markets overall. Stocks were continuously climbing as our precious coins continued to get hammered down. One thing to note is that the Fed has changed its stance on a December cut, with it being almost certain a few weeks ago, to only a 50/50 chance as it sits today. With the US shutdown lasting the longest it has ever lasted, delayed data is starting to come in, and some data is "lost" forever. Markets don't like uncertainty, and paired with seasonality, this is the market you are left with.

Can Always Check Here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Yesterday, price wicked to 89k on BTC, which looks like the final push down if stocks can start to catch a bid and help our little bounce. Last newsletter I wrote out seasonality, trader mindsets, and their actions into the end of the year. These all stand true. We are seeing people take profits, tax loss harvest a little early, and book any wins they might have had. This is all getting accelerated by a little burst in the AI bubble sector.

I think you can start, not financial advice, and pick up some good businesses that are well managed and have plenty of cash. I'm not calling bottoms, but buying while others are panicking is a good start to a DCA. You have some time, but you can start to get some good entries into next year. Note: Nailing the pico bottom, as well as the pico top, is near impossible.

As you all know, Kyan launched yesterday! The long awaited launch is finally here! Currently, there is a testnet competition while the team works out the bugs before mainnet launch. For those just tuning in, Kyan is the rebrand of Premia, bringing a fresh approach to derivatives trading on Arbitrum. The team has been cooking behind the scenes for months, and what they've built is honestly impressive. The interface is clean, the execution is smooth, and they've clearly been listening to what traders actually want from a derivatives DEX. This isn't just another copy-paste platform. They've spent real time thinking through the user experience, the liquidity infrastructure, and how to compete with the big boys in the space. The testnet phase is smart too. Better to iron out the kinks now with mock capital than have issues when real money is on the line. It's a mature approach in an industry that often rushes to market.

Some sneak peek metrics for the readers. Total Traders: 500+ Total OI: Around 190mm

Here is a current view of the front end in Dark Mode. Please, for the sake of your eyes, go to the top right under CONNECTED WALLET and change the THEME. There is a full order book, but the team is working on bringing deep liquidity and multiple level quotes to bring the full trading experience to a new level.

If you made it this far then let me sprinkle a little alpha for you. The trading competition is split into 2 epochs so everyone gets a fair shot. Every new wallet gets 250k testnet USDC deposited instantly, and will be given a refresh at the 2 week mark if you blow up! The leaderboard has multiple winners. Prizes include Krystals, VIP tiers for mainnet, Marty Hats, and more to be announced.

If you have any feedback, the Discord is open with active team members responding to tickets. If you're a VIP, reach out to me and we will get you sorted! The product will continue to go through various updates and iterations, making the experience better and better each day for users.

Happy trading fellas, upwards and onwards! Let the games begin. Come trade against your favorite MM, me, and win some great prizes.

As the market is trying to find a bottom, we continue to accumulate. The conditions are horrid for most coins, and only a handful will make it to the next cycle. Pick and choose wisely.

We've seen this movie before. The bleeding feels endless until it suddenly isn't. The panic feels justified until it becomes the best buying opportunity in hindsight. I'm not saying we've bottomed, I'm not calling for some miraculous V-shaped recovery. But I am saying that when everyone is puking, when the timeline is full of capitulation posts, when your group chats go quiet, that's usually when the smart money is quietly positioning.

Stay patient, stay disciplined, and remember why you're here. The easy money has left the building. What remains is the opportunity to build real positions in real projects at real discounts. Don't let the noise shake you out before the signal returns.

Pre alpha: We have Mr. Dyme on the Marty x Kyan Options Talk this Wednesday 2pm EST! See you next in 2 week.

Recap:

Trade on Kyan: https://alpha.kyan.blue/

Join The Marty Community Telegram: https://t.me/optionswithmarty

Mind you there is never a paid group, all information is free and we will never ask you for money. The Telegram is always free and provides a community for people to chat and learn.

The Kyan Trading Competition is live!

​Kyan will be a significant upgrade for anyone trading decentralized derivatives.

If you have any questions, hop into our Discord or shoot us a message on X. We would love to know your thoughts!

Kyan | Academy | Twitter | Discord | Blog | YouTube |